Updated on Dec 23rd 2014
This post first appeared on one of my other news blogs, American Info Maps, in October. I was asked to update it and located some alarming new numbers which I have posted below. Ebola has now fallen out of the news cycle in the USA as the Ferguson riots and related issues were given greater priority after several Americans who were ill with Ebola successfully recovered. Numbers recently published by the CDC on how the disease might progress by 2015 are disturbing. I’ll follow up in another month with new updates.
If you are wondering just exactly how this awful incurable fatal disease is so difficult to contain in the stricken epicenters where it is spreading the fastest, read this article. It explains everything and it’s not for the faint of heart.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also released projections on Tuesday, using a new modeling tool that ended up with different numbers than the predictions published in the NEJM.
They estimated that reported cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia could rise to 8,000 by the end of September. But the CDC also noted that cases seem to be vastly underreported, perhaps by a factor of 2.5. According to the new projections, the true number of cases by the end of September could — worst case scenario — rise to 21,000.
By January 20, 2015, the number of Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone could be as high as 550,000, the CDC report said. Correcting for under-reporting, the number would be vastly higher: 1.4 million cases.
This post will not be easy to digest, and it was not meant to be.It is now time to PUT THE FEAR OF GOD into persons who are still playing with fire by the continuance of certain behaviors which are known to spread he Ebola virus.
We all know by now the tragic disproportionate number of uninformed, uncaring foolish and reckless people who abound in our world, caring little that their wanton actions may create haphazard life and death situations for others. We learned all about that during the early moments of the 35 year long AIDS epidemic. We also know that many millions of uninformed or just uncaring and / or foolish people happen to live in or near GROUND ZERO regions of the Ebola virus in west Africa. Those persons must now be reached by any and all means – and impressed IMMEDIATELY with the gravity and dire consequences that their possible reckless actions may cause to those close to them, and to others, far far away. Our very inter-connectedness now threatens to spread this evil virus so quickly that public health officials around the world could easily become overwhelmed. Please, please share this post!
I found a very telling and noteworthy piece of information about Ebola in a small obscure graphic. I’d like to share that graphic FIRST in this series of maps and info-graphics. READ what it says about the spread of Ebola via semen:
“Although victims may appear healthy, they are still infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus. Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery.”
What this means is that a self-imposed period of total celibacy for at least 7 weeks after recovery from Ebola needs to be MANDATORY for all males who contracted the disease, and then recovered. Otherwise they may be spreading the virus via sexual activity, post-recovery – without knowing it. This urgently important fact needs to be broadcast globally to avoid a worldwide Ebola pandemic.
The chart below vividly illustrates what can happen when a small outbreak of such a virulent disease like Ebola doesn’t get the massive attention to halt it’s progress very early on. No one in January of 2014 was paying enough attention to what was about to happen concerning the rapid uncontrolled spread of Ebola. Now in October of 2014, health officials are around the world are racing to establish new protocols which can hopefully halt the spread of the disease and avoid a global pandemic.
Cell phone data was used to develop this map of the migration of Ebola from region to region in south Africa:
RED ALERT for a possible global pandemic of Ebola was first detected in this computer algorithm map [ shown below ] which dates to March 2014 of this year. My advice would be NOT to wait for “official” travel advisories regarding regions of high infection, but to cancel any travel plans to those regions now. Find a way NOT to travel into Ebola infected regions if at all possible. If their computers told them a global pandemic was highly likely 6 months ago – and officials ignored those warnings, then odds are they have drastically under-estimated the possible speed at which this disease could spread, and the possible numbers of people globally who could be affected. Stay home. It’s better to be safe than sorry.
I’d also like to re-post in it’s entirety another very helpful and informative post about Ebola which is located at http://www.vox.com/2014/10/1/6877617/16-charts-maps-and-photos-that-explain-the-ebola-outbreak
1. Ebola was first discovered in 1976 in Zaire (now known as the Democratic Republic of Congo).
An electron micrograph containing the Ebola virus taken in 1976.
2. Between 1976 and 2013, 20 Ebola outbreaks killed a total of 1,548 people.
Previous Ebola Outbreaks by relative size. Joe Posner / Vox.
3. Four strains of Ebola can infect humans. The Zaire strain is the most deadly, and is the disease spreading in this outbreak.
The current outbreak is the Zaire ebolavirus. Joss Fong / Vox.
4. Ebola patients have to be kept in isolation wards. One problem is that West Africa lacks enough of them.
Ibrahim Fambulle, barely able to stand, tries to walk to a different isolation room in an Ebola ward on August 15, 2014 in Monrovia, Liberia. Photo by John Moore/Getty Images.
5. This is the worst Ebola outbreak ever.
Ebola deaths by outbreak. Joss Fong/Vox.
6. It’s spread to seven countries and killed 3,091 people – nearly twice as many as all other outbreaks combined.
A Sierra Leonese burial team carries the coffin of Dr Modupeh Cole, Sierra Leone’s second senior physician to die of Ebola. Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty Images.
8. Ebola is also spreading through unsafe burial practices in Africa.
The Tweh farm cemetery in Liberia, where burials have ben halted, September 30, 2014. Pascal Guyot / Getty Images.
9. The only way to catch Ebola is to have direct contact with the bodily fluids of someone who has Ebola and has begun showing symptoms.
10. Modern public health systems can stop Ebola. West Africa’s poverty and underfunded health care system allowed it to spread.
11. The CDC projects as many as 1.4 million people could be infected with Ebola by January if the outbreak isn’t stopped.
12. But Nigeria and Senegal stopped their Ebola outbreaks cold.
Medics carry a Nigerian patient during his transfer to another hospital in Istanbul, Turkey on September 25, 2014. Metin Pala/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.
13. A Texas hospital diagnosed the first-ever American case of Ebola on September 30.
14. The United States has a robust health infrastructure that will near-certainly prevent the disease’s spread.
15. There is no cure, treatment or vaccine for Ebola.
A possible Ebola vaccine called Chimp Adenovirus type 3 being tested in London. Steve Parsons-WPA Pool/Getty Images.